271 points by sandwall 8 days ago
India has an intricate history with nuclear technology. Both the Soviet Union and the US courted India in the 1950s, but in the end it was Canada who donated a design for the first Indian reactor that came online in the 1960s. The US assisted with building another. Indian testing of nuclear weapons in the 1970s drew a sharp rebuke from several countries and the US and Canada withdrew their assistance. This also resulted in the creation of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, an export control regime to prevent nuclear proliferation. Cut off from exporters of nuclear technology, they slowly continued with domestic designs and new research. But their tremendous size and influence made them an attractive partner in geopolitical power plays.
In 1988 the Soviet Union and India announced they would build two new reactors, and the US fiercely protested at the time. The Soviet Union fell apart, and the Russians didn't resume the project for another 10 years, but construction eventually began in 2002. In 2006 the US and India reached an agreement to cooperate and the US lobbied for an exemption for India from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which was granted. It quickly became obvious that everyone wanted a slice of the Indian nuclear energy market.
Disregarding climate change for a moment, it's clear that the energy demand in India is increasing, and despite a rapid rise in the deployment of renewables, utility-scale generation is still 75% coal. This contributes greatly to pollution. Local coal lower quality than elsewhere, requiring more per unit of power. Nuclear will be an important complement to renewables as the energy mix slowly migrates off of coal. Unlike the US, which is awash in cheap natural gas that's readily stored and piped where needed, helping to even out the mismatch between solar generation and demand, India has very little natural gas, so it can't afford to pursue a strategy that deemphasizes nuclear energy.
Missing from that history was India developing nuclear weapons in the late 90s - I imagine that changed the politics immensely.
Today they are an even more important and influential geopolitical ally, and the pollution argument you raise is as important as you say, but the concerns about a power supplying them with nuclear weapons ala the alleged Israel/US history is no longer a part of it (I assume).
...then again, I could be completely wrong in any of this. Comments welcome.
India started developing nuclear weapons in the 1950s and first tested a nuclear bomb in 1974.
One concern is nuclear material being diverted from their civilian programs to weapons programs. As a major suppler of uranium, this has been an issue in Australia for the last decade. India wants Australian uranium, but they aren't a party to the non-proliferation treaty. It seems that the $ won out though, as Australia is now shipping uranium to India.
it's worth understanding why India doesn't sign the non-proliferation treaty.
The treaty essentially states that only 5 countries (US, UK, France, China, Russia) can have nuclear weapons. India says this is discriminatory: either all countries denuclearize or other countries can develop nuclear weapons.
afaik india has a good record of preserving its nuclear secrets, and not doing "proliferation" to other countries.
Plus, India has a no first use policy. So it's not like India will threaten other countries with nuclear consequences in case of war like situations. This makes India's approach to nuclear weapons safer, IMO.
Of course, such policies can be changed whenever India would want to.
It is also worth noting that there's a big difference in enrichment plants for power plants vs enrichment plants for weapons grade material (this was a big part of the Iran deal). That being said, it isn't like you can't make a weapon out from the power grade enrichment plants, but it is substantially harder. It is even harder if you're being watched (by say... the US or Russia).
> The treaty essentially states that only 5 countries (US, UK, France, China, Russia) can have nuclear weapons. India says this is discriminatory: either all countries denuclearize or other countries can develop nuclear weapons.
Part of the treaty is that those 5 are supposed to (gradually) denuclearise, and also to assist with civilian power efforts.
> Part of the treaty is that those 5 are supposed to (gradually) denuclearise
and how is that going for the big players since the treaty was singed ?
Nuclear arsenals are a fraction of their former size, and "battlefield" nuclear weapons have been almost entirely eliminated. But no-one has signed up to take the final step down to zero.
yeah, agree with you on arsenal sizes going down.
As much as I would like nuclear weapons gone, I don't see it as being done to a satisfactory level that assuages India's concerns. I don't think anyone has made a real commitment to denuclearizing, akin to what South Africa did a while ago.
Like other comments have noted, it's almost taken for granted that 5 countries can dictate who does and doesn't get access to uranium. It's fine that they collude, but legitimizing their collusion as logical or moral isn't really convincing. Discrimination isn't logical, especially when the club includes Russia and China - countries famous for being overtly belligerent, with a horrible human rights track record
In what way is China overtly belligerent compared to, say, the US?
What was the last territory that the US annexed? What territory has it formally annexed as the dominant superpower for the last 70 years? Hawaii is about it, with the US controlling Hawaii since the 19th century.
China just recently used its military to annex territory the size of India. The largest territory grab since Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia were piling up conquests. That's after annexing Tibet (larger than Colombia) immediately after WW2. Next they plan to annex the world's 21st largest economy and one of the largest economies in Asia in Taiwan. Most of China's neighbors are openly terrified of it, including South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines.
Meanwhile the US has maintained stable, massive borders with Canada and Mexico for a very long time, despite being comically more powerful in every regard. The US isn't attempting to annex the Gulf of Mexico away from Mexico & Co., even though it trivially could and nobody could stop it. Neither Canada nor Mexico are actually afraid of the US.
Canada's border with the US has been the largest, longest non-militarized border in world history. India, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam (arguably Russia as well) are in perpetual military stand-off mode on their territory and borders with China.
Dozens of countries allow the US to station its superpower military inside their borders, with zero fear of being annexed or invaded for conquest. Japan, Germany, Poland, South Korea, the Baltics, et al. are not afraid the US is suddenly going to decide to try to annex them or their territory.
Annexation and being belligerent are two different things. You can be the latter without doing the former. In that regard the US hasn't a stellar track record.
>China just recently used its military to annex territory the size of India
I am not sure what you are talking about.
Not OP, but probably this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_So...
Depends on if you are China or the population being annexed.
Let's not overlook the recent skirmish with adjacent nuclear power, Pakistan.
Maybe citations would help, but language like "Canada donated a design" simply makes no sense geopolitically. No country "donates" nuclear tech
 Canada blamed for India's 'peaceful' bomb [Radio broadcast]. (1974, May 20). In As It Happens. Ottawa, Ontario: Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved March 14, 2019, from https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/1974-canada-blamed-for-ind...
 Perkovich, G. (2001). India's nuclear bomb: The impact on global proliferation. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. <https://books.google.com/books?id=UDA9dUryS8EC>
 Ramana, M V (2012). The Power of Promise: Examining Nuclear Energy in India. Penguin Books Limited. <https://books.google.com/books?id=5m8Atq0ncrwC>
Quoting your CBC citation:
"The nuclear device was built using plutonium obtained from the 40-megawatt Cirus research reactor, a gift from Canada"
Plutonium, the raw material (also) used for making bombs, was "donated". And apparently a working "research" reactor. A bomb design was certainly not donated, nor is it evident that Canada intended to transfer nuclear tech intellectual property, all the article claims was Canada's intent to sell working reactors and fuel, not designs, to India. FYI - Canada wouldn't have wanted India to have nuclear IP, for fear of cannibalising it's nuclear revenue stream of fuel and reactors to India!!
Just the be clear, 31 countries have working nuclear power reactors, while only 7 have bombs. Unless you intend to undermine India's indigenous nuclear capabilities, all this hand waving about Canada "donating" designs doesn't hold up. After all, we're talking about the most lethal of weapons here, not candies that are casually "donated". Western intelligence agencies have a storied history of preventing nuclearization. India got nuclear despite the West, not because of
I think OP is suggesting that Canada donated the reactor design, not a blueprint for a nuclear bomb.
Yep. Hell, as far as I know, we've never even designed a nuclear bomb, and the only nukes on Canadian soil were American built and controlled, and gone as soon as they were no longer needed up here.
But the suggestion is inaccurate, based on the OP's own citation. Reactor design IP is a closely guarded secret, heavily regulated and controlled to prevent nuclearization of other countries.
India used the low enriched Uranium fuel reactor donated by Canada to breed plutonium and make nuclear bombs in 70's. Before that nobody thought it were possible to make nuclear weapons with low enriched uranium reactor to breed plutonium. Nonetheless India is a mature nuclear power, the world should really be worried about is pakistan as a nuclear state.
Every single time I remember that Pakistan is a nuclear power, I am a bit worried.
It's certainly in a top 5 position of countries I'd rather not have access to nuclear weapons.
Well, in the recent skirmishes it seems that Pakistan was actually the more level headed of the two. India has been agitating about Kashmir due to local elections coming up, and BJP wants to gather the 'tough on Pakistan/national security' votes.
The difference is (a) government control over the army and (b) the role of paramilitaries... It just means that pakistan has more vectors for escalation. Populist flag thumping is a vestor in both countries.
Well, that's after you conveniently take away the fact that Pakistan essentially started the latest skirmish. You really can't blame India for responding to the murder of their people on their soil, can you?
> India plans to triple its nuclear capacity by 2024 to wean Asia's third-largest economy off polluting fossil fuels.
One has to admire the no-nonsense problem solving happening here.
India plans to triple its nuclear capacity by 2024 to wean Asia's third-largest economy off polluting fossil fuels.
That's a really short timeline. India's newest reactor Kudankulam 2 took 14 years from construction start to first criticality:
The only American reactors currently under construction, Vogtle 3 and 4, were originally supposed to be built in less than 5 years but are now projected to take 8 years.
But maybe the American reactors aren't intended to be part of the generation added by 2024. India does have 7 reactors currently under construction.
2024 is an eyewatering timeframe, but the actual construction might not be the hardest part. The Chinese have figured out how to do prefabbed skyscrapers in 19 days  and the prefabbing is probably highly parallel. If a nuclear plant is 100 times harder than a skyscraper to build that is still only about 5 years as a lower bound.
If they've already done the scoping, fundraising, location picking and had a construction firm who optimised for speed & quality but not cost then I can see ~5 years as achievable, although they probably won't manage it. This is one of nuclear many advantages over more usual nonrenewable, things can happen orders of magnitude more quickly because the physical footprint is so small.
AFAIK one limitation is forging of the large pressure vessels, mainly the reactor itself and the steam generators. Those take a long time. Of course you can do multiple ones in parallel, but then the limit is that there's about 25 heavy forge presses on the planet, of which only a subset are doing nuclear work. So in total the capacity at the moment is maybe 50 large pressure vessels per year worldwide. If one plant requires one reactor and 4 steam generators that would then be 10 plants per year.
Of course it's possible to increase the worldwide heavy forging capacity, but again, something that takes time.
Then there are many reactor designs that don't use water as a coolant or moderator; those are obviously not restricted by heavy forge capacity. But those reactors are mostly on the drawing board and not available off the shelf.
Why would forging be a requirement? Hasn't material science reached a point where we can built alloys that can be just cast into the right shape? Can't the problem of them being slightly weaker be solved by just making them thicker (not a problem for nuclear I'd guess bc you don't build that many pieces and you don't need to move them much), or by just having stuff like turbines replaced more often?
I know that mixing "nuclear" + "cheaper manufacturing" sounds scary, but maybe it's a better idea... why would you need "best of the best" materials for pieces that (1) stay in one place (they're not airplanes!) and (2) can be replaced/serviced/inspected on fixed schedules following fixed procedures on fixed budgets etc.
Modern forges were perfected by the germans in the war because they wanted to build airplane parts (!!) and they wanter to build them fast... I'd imagine nuclear power technology has none of this requirements and can be re-designed to work with commodity low-quality parts and have the movable pieces easily replace-able...
(I'd imagine that if people would get over the "uuh, nuclear, scarry, scarry" mindset nuclear technology could become a dirt cheap commodity and be build with a mixture of ceramics + cheap alloys just fine...)
That's a pretty good question, so I looked things up a little. Casting, especially on pieces this big, is difficult. It has problems with chemical segregation due to temperature gradients in the material, as well as porosity from the differential shrinkage due to the same temperature gradients [1,2]. From  "Consolidation of porosity formed in the ingot during solidification and homogenization is the major aim of the initial stage of forging. After that, the material is forged to form the shape of the desired products." The porosity and chemical segregation if I remember correctly, is very bad in nuclear applications, where bubbling and embrittlement would only be accelerated in non-homogenous materials. They are usually 1 piece to minimize welds, and this is just a feeling, but I think replacing the pressure vessel is pretty much currently the same as buying a new reactor . These are very radioactive 1000 ton pieces of solid metal that you need to move and dispose of. Interesting question though, and I'd want to look into it more later.
 https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/... (pdf, p. 11)
 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B978184569... (can send a pdf if interested)
You are absolutely right, casting large objects with homogeneous composition and mechanical properties is very difficult practically. Slightly off topic, but the turbine blades used in the aircraft/marine/power engines are grown from single crystal for similar reasons.
The quality of the steel is the hard part of this. It is incredibly important to not have any defects in the pressure systems & turbine of a nuclear plant for obvious reasons.
If Nuclear was committed to, would the number of these heavy forge presses likely go up, and costs come down?
I have no idea, but it does seem that if there are bottlenecks in the process, demand for nuclear could bring costs come down dramatically. Am I missing something here?
Those heavy presses themselves seem to be nation-state level engineering projects, so it's unlikely that anyone would build more of them than they absolutely need.
Or well, maybe costs wouldn't come down that much, since AFAIK press forging is a pretty mature technology.
I'm just saying a heavy press forge is a major infrastructure project on its own, and it won't just happen by snapping our fingers. It will take time.
Then there's the question of whether it makes sense to embark on a major buildout of current style large light water reactors? If the market shifts towards smaller modular reactors (SMR's), then for light water SMR's smaller forges would likely do. Or further in the future non-water low pressure designs.
My opinion is that given the urgency of addressing climate change, coal pollution etc., yes we should embark on a major buildout of currently available reactor types, while also massively increasing advanced reactor R&D&commercialization funding.
Vogtle is even worse than that... Ground works started in 2009/2010 -- Best case scenario right now is first power by 2022/2023 and if they stay on budget from here, cost will be 100% more than first estimated. So much good money being thrown after bad.
I’ll admire it when the fuel is loaded and the generators spin up. Until then, it’s PR, not energy policy.
Aspiration alone is no different than failure.
> I’ll admire it when the fuel is loaded and the generators spin up
Meanwhile, the United States continues to shut down Nuclear Reactors and prevent modern constructions out of irrational fearmongering.
At least India recognizes the benefits of Nuclear Power...
It's a trope that Nuclear is failing because of fearmongering. Nuclear is uneconomical, especially with renewable energy dropping in cost consistently. Is France, the long time operator of one of the largest fleets, afraid of nuclear - I think it is very experienced at managing nuclear, both old gen and the very newest gen reactors. And yet this article:
France will save 39 billion euros ($44.5 billion) if it refrains from building 15 new nuclear plants by 2060, and bets instead on renewable energy sources to replace its all its aging atomic facilities, a government agency said.
France should spend 1.28 trillion euros over the next four decades, mostly on clean power production and storage capacities, networks, and imports, according to a report from the country’s environment ministry. If it does this, France would progressively shut down its 58 atomic plants and renewable energy would comprise 95 percent of its electricity output by 2060, up from 17 percent last year
"It's a trope that Nuclear is failing because of fearmongering."
I think it's a large scale astroturfing effort by the nuclear industry (which is huge, with a very small number of players) and the useful rubes who play along.
Nuclear may be a necessary part of the grid mix, but the panacea presented has never remotely been close to reality -- every build takes much longer than promised, and always, with 100% certainty, costs billions more than planned. Every build has maintenance that costs multiples of the claims, operation that is far more expensive, and with waste products that there is still no viable solution for, with an eternity of costs dragging them down. And nuclear only exists because the public subsidizes it by eschewing the need for real insurance (which would be prohibitively expensive otherwise).
In every economic sense nuclear has been an enormous boondoggle, and they stopped making them because every energy provider got wise. This has nothing to do with fearmongering or some sort of ignorant public -- quite the contrary, the overwhelming public sentiment had no problem with nuclear -- though that claim frequently appears. It's bizarre.
To postulate a detachment of the economics of nuclear from public perception very hard to justify in my opinion.
Certainly nuclear has been expensive to build and operate, and the industry is by no means innocent in this. On the other hand, it's extremely regulated, and the bureaucracy built up makes it very expensive, for example, to make a routine change during construction from the blueprints. No other industry is as regulated as nuclear.
During operation it's the same way. You can spend many person-months dealing with corrective action procedures that are mandated, etc. Many of these are considered by the industry to not actually affect safety. For instance the NRC finds like 22,000 "green" findings and a few hundred "white" ones per year. The white ones have low safety significance. Yet, the paperwork and follow-up is nearly crippling.
That's good right? Because nuclear is dangerous? Wrong. Commercial nuclear over its 60 years of commercial operation has killed as many people as coal (operating as designed) kills every single day. Every time a nuclear plant shuts down, more people die because of increased air pollution.
It's not rational. It's regulated so much because people are afraid of it. It's expensive entirely because of fearmongering.
It could very well be that nuclear is so safe because of all the bureaucracy that is required. Its safety record is not a good argument for abolishing the red tape. The fact is that failure scenarios of nuclear plants are very dangerous.
Are they? Tmi was before the red tape was excessive and Fukushima was a huge meltdown from a massive tsunami. How many people died from the radiation released from both combined?
The answer is zero.
I'm not saying we go non-regulated. I'm saying the current regs may be too much. I'd argue that climate change is now more of a threat than more carbon-free nuclear plants.
Isn't Fukishima still leaking into the Pacific? And hasn't the world had to redefine "safe" measures and recommendations for pregnant women and children to abstain from ocean fish because of it? Long term effects could be very bad.
I'm actually in favor of more nuclear power in the U.S. mainland. But certain locations are definitely more or less safe than others. I'm also in favor of streamlining a lot of regulation, if those responsible for a human error based disaster (including managers up to the president/ceo of contsruction/management org) potentially being hanged as a result (not shot, not electric, not chemical injection, hanged till dead).
Nuclear waste only gets talked about because it is visible.
Waste that goes into the air? Waste from mines in third world countries? Out of sight out of mind.
Nuclear waste is easily containable, and the country that generates the power has to pay for it. Not only that, but newer reactor designs can take existing nuclear waste in, outputting energy and a smaller pile of waste.
> every build takes much longer than promised, and always, with 100% certainty, costs billions more than planned.
That's true of pretty much every large infrastructure project in the US (and probably outside the US, but I'm less familiar with that side of things). Nuclear reactors are hardly unique in that regard.
There was a discussion on HN about a year ago about how the US seems to get less for it's money on subway station construction than other nations.
Yes all large infra hits similar issues here.
>I think it's a large scale astroturfing effort by the nuclear industry
Just to be clear, you think that the nuclear industry is paying people to go on line and say positive things about nuclear power? Can I get some kind of source for this claim?
While I led off with "I think", the notion that this is outlandish is a curious response. Every large industry has social media massaging efforts (and nuclear has layers and layers of lobbying and PR groups), and I see no reason why nuclear would be free of this. The recurring "Nuclear is the only hope" posts on various social media sites come with regular frequency.
But they also have a number of former well-known figures who are quite literally on their payroll. People like Patrick Moore who they pay to write editorials -- always with the byline that he was a Greenpeace activist (yet never noting that he's paid to do this) -- heralding the wonders of nuclear energy. It's a massive industry, and every plant is tens of billions of dollars, so of course they engage in these efforts.
The actual reason you hear a lot of broad support for nuclear is that the energy source is simply quite exciting from a physics point of view. There are roughly 2 million times more Joules in a kg of uranium nuclear bonds than in a kg of anything with chemical bonds (like oil, coal, gas) . A nuclear reactor can operate for decades, powering a city on a few dump-trucks of fuel with no air pollution and no carbon emissions. The imaginations of tech-friendly people run wild with this pure-physics advantage, and one can't help but wonder if it's possible to harness this energy source successfully for the benefit of an enterprising mankind.
I am one such person who let my imagination run wild. I then spent a decade getting a Ph.D. in nuclear engineering, and then spent another decade trying to develop advanced nuclear reactors. I have dozens upon dozens of friends and colleagues who feel the same way, mostly to help solve the climate change and energy poverty issues. This is not some cynical PR campaign. This is young, smart, energetic, and excited people trying to make the best of the world's natural resources through advanced technology.
The nuclear industry is famously pathetic with PR (the old guard think it's best to hide and hope anti-nuclear forces will go away). Can you even think of one pro-nuclear advertisement you've ever seen? Or a positive portrayal in a movie? Or in the news? I cannot. All I can see is Captain Planet and MacGyver and The Simpsons and all the monster movies that show nuclear as some dark scary force with a bunch of environment-hating goons dumping ooze into the river.
Mix this with magnitudes of pure ignorance in the difference between nuclear weapons waste (ooze, river, Hanford, Mayak) and commercial nuclear waste (solid, ceramic, like a teacup, dry casks, never hurt a soul), and you've got yourself a nuclear PR issue that needs some grassroots help.
And I'm sure you're just being paid by the green energy lobby. Isn't is curious how "popular" green energy has suddenly become? It seems incredibly suspicious. It can obviously only be astroturfing.
Either you don’t know what astroturfing means or you believe in a conspiracy there is no evidence of (nuclear companies faking HN commenter support for nuclear). Either way, this adds nothing to a conversation because it gives reasons for people on any side of the argument to just ignore any material facts or logic.
Rather than assuming that everyone who supports nuclear is a fake account or a shill, perhaps you should try to address arguments directly?
>This has nothing to do with fearmongering or some sort of ignorant public
That’s incorrect. Yucca Mountain is an example. The reactions to Fukushima on the news were another. The Diablo plant that was closed early has been consistently plagued by protests based on irrational fears.
You seem to think that a majority of people supporting nuclear is relevant. It’s not considering the tiny percentage of people required to throw up NIMBY roadblocks at all levels of government.
Example: Despite their tiny population, anti vaxxers are a major problem.
With enough effort pretty soon you have a good foundation of useful rubes who will repeat your claims ad nausea as fact. The claim that nuclear has mostly come to a halt because of fearmongering is one such claim, easily and completely disproven with even the most cursory of analysis. Somehow it comes back from the dead as if it's just those pesky fearmongers, and not nuclear's horrid history (not in accidents or deaths, where it has done spectacularly, but in pure economics), that's to blame.
Most nuclear builds in the west saw extraordinarily little opposition. Ever. We saw a massive spike in builds that went on for a few decades, but it slowly sputtered to a halt because of real-world economics and utilities becoming jaded. Economics that saw that nuclear was overhyped, and the process around it (a process necessary for a platform that can cause enormous economic and ecological damage if it goes awry) made it much less of a win.
Not one nuclear plant has been delayed or not built because of the Yucca Mountain issue (which is a classic issue where you're asking a jurisdiction to take the problems with none of the benefits). Dry cask storage is doing fine.
We're just entering the period where nuclear power plants are nearing end of life stages, where countless billions in costs are going to come due that everyone just whistled and looked the other way about. The massive nuclear hype was courtesy of the 1950s style new age everything is better enthusiasm, and was critical for building out the grid, and is still a very important part of the mix. However they aren't being built because of some soccer mom nattering about Fukushima, but instead because the people who run the energy grid are choosing much less expensive options. Wind and solar are much less expensive full stop, and gas turbines are cheaper because no one has to pay for the carbon released, which has its own problems that we're going to pay a heavy price for.
Gas turbines with CCS are still probably much cheaper than nuclear. The president of Exelon (a US corporation that operates 23 nuclear reactors) has stated that CO2 taxes in the US would have to be $300-400/tonne for nuclear to compete with natural gas. CCS could be done for less than that. Hell, direct air capture of CO2 could likely be done for less than that!
Except for the environmental impact from fracking.
I have issues using French costings because I can't read the primary sources, and there are a lot of stupid environmentalists out there who misrepresent the costs. I'm going to commit the same sin and point out that people are willing to claim 'renewables in Germany are pulling down wholesale prices!' and ignore the fact that their retail prices are amongst the highest in Europe because they are charging a massive renewable-support tariff.
The experience in Australia is nobody has considered nuclear because one political party (labour) has historically had a policy of banning the technology. The economics of the costs have never been tested because of the hysterical response to radiation risk. I suspect if it was regulated to the same safety standards as solar it would be very cost-competitive indeed.
That's a ridiculous analysis of anti-nuclear sentiment in Australia. Australia is a democracy and many minor political parties have responded to genuine community concerns that developed since the cold war around non-proliferation, disarmament, testing, nuclear waste management, aboriginal land rights, mining degradation.
The current focus of energy policy is on reducing GHG emissions, reliability and affordability of supply. The installed cost of nuclear power does not make it an attractive option compared to fast installation of solar and wind generation.
Labor dropped their policy back in '07 because it was a stupid policy, you know.
> non-proliferation, disarmament, testing
You don't need to do any of that jazz to have nuclear power. The existence of cheap and clean nuclear power would in fact be a powerful stabilising force and likely to promote world peace.
> nuclear waste management
Are there worries here that cannot be fairly summed up as concerns about radiation risk? The volumes are tiny and trivially manageable apart from that.
> aboriginal land rights, mining degradation
Those are simply anti-mining concerns. There is nowhere in Australia that mining doesn't interact with somebody's land rights. There is also no organised political force in Australia that wants to ban mining - even the Greens are not opposed to mining in principle.
> The installed cost of nuclear power does not make it an attractive option ...
Maybe. I'm not up to date with the current costs for wind and solar but I've been consistently told they were the cheapest option and it has been consistently proven they are not. Happily the evidence is a lot more compelling this round but I'm waiting to see the whole-of-grid picture.
That doesn't change the fact that there was a long stretch of Australia's history where the most economic cheap & clean source of energy was basically blanket banned due to a major parties policy. You'd have to be stupid to try and run the gauntlet with nuclear power in the current political environment, so I doubt it is going to get a fair go.
39 billion of 1.28 trillion is 3%. Does that mean they only save 3% when betting on falling prices for renewables? For four decades? Doesn't sound much like a financial advantage compared to the (presumably) more predictable and stable prices for nuclear
The only thing predictable about nuclear construction prices and schedules is that they tend to go over by 2x-4x or higher (but they tend to get canceled at that point).
The 3% difference is a reasonable criticism, meaning that they're basically at parity cost wise in this comparison. But then you really have to add the 1000+ year waste storage costs - which even if not ignored, are ridiculous to estimate costs for.
Is that because its a nuclear project, or because its a large civic project? With everything from the California High-Speed Rail project to New York's public transit system to the F35 fighter jet I don't really think the US is going to be getting any major projects done again without absolutely demolishing anything resembling a budget, at least in the near future.
I don't think you can separate nuclear projects from being large civic projects, but I agree with you on something going massively wrong with US large project capability. IMHO, it's the rise of a specialist-in-managment-only class of executive in the US more than other nations.
Only in the US. France has well-managed public works and they use standardized reactor designs for economies of scale. That doesn’t prevent snafus on new designs like the Superphenix fast breeder reactor, but nothing like the US’ absurd cost disease.
Superphenix isn't exactly the only example of a complete cost fuckup in france: http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,...
Short version: was originally expected to cost 3.3 bil euro, is now at 10.9 bil euro and climbing.
At some point during the next 1000+ years we'll probably build some breeder reactors to use all that "waste" as fuel.
Why? More likely, nuclear will just become museumware.
Because using the stuff is better than just keeping it somewhere underground?
Doesn't sound much like a financial advantage compared to the (presumably) more predictable and stable prices for nuclear.
Reactors that are already built and in good operating order provide very predictable electricity at low-moderate costs.
Building new reactors is much less predictable. France's latest reactor design, the EPR, is many years behind schedule and many billions over budget at both French and Finnish projects to build the new reactor. It was even years late when built in China, where presumably no lawsuits/activists/excessive safety regulations were ever allowed to get in the way.
Also, we're now in an environment where power technology is changing rapidly, due to the rapid decline in cost of renewables. In that environment, any long term investment is suspect. This is one reason combustion turbines held on: they have lower capital cost, so if they're made obsolete in a couple of decades it's not as big a hit.
Does that account for the space available in India? How much land would it take to provide power for 1.3 billion people?
I think the idea that renewables will be feasible in a country India's size with India's population, while preserving much if any natural space seems, at best, optimistic.
By all means Australia - the 6th largest country by area in the world with a population of 25ish million has the space. But India? Sure it is the 7th largest country by area, but it is less than half Australia's size, with 50-70 times the population (India's population estimates are tricky).
The scariest part of these debates is that the solution is likely energy dependence, as in countries with space - and day more sunshine - sell electricity to those without it. I don't think ANYONE likes that idea, but I can't see any way that it is feasible worldwide while maintaining each country's energy independence.
People say this, but they never explain where the power will come from when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shining. I hear people throw out "batteries" as if that word is some sort of solution.
You build these. When the sun shines and the wind blows excess power reverses the turbines, when there is demand on the grid water flows and turbines spin back to generate power.
The project – begun in 1974 and costing £425 million
So, constructing this storage facility costed basically as much as constructing an actual nuclear power plant in 1970s of equivalent generating capacity. Thus, if instead of these, we simply build nuclear plants, we'll likely save money and won't have to deal with instability of generation.
There are several islands already running on solar, wind, and batteries alone.
If every six months the rate at which a million EVs are sold, how much battery storage is that over the next decade? My math says tens of GWs.
> There are several islands already running on solar, wind, and batteries alone.
EDIT Which is awesome, and surely beats running diesel generators!
Which presumably don't have large, dense cities nor heavy industry?
> If every six months the rate at which a million EVs are sold, how much battery storage is that over the next decade? My math says tens of GWs.
Battery costs are orders of magnitude too high to make sense for anything but very short term storage. Yes, they are fantastic for some ancillary services like frequency control. And with lots of solar and air conditioning, might allow you to get past the duck curve hump in the evenings.
Providing energy for a couple weeks when a high pressure system has parked on your country and wind produces 0? Forget it.
Iceland has a lot of industrial aluminum smelting operations there because they have very low cost renewable hydro power...
Flow batteries will come online to carry the storage past where high volume production lithium cost savings can't reach. I think if we put nearly the same or as consistent capital into renewable as we put into even the last decade of fossil fuel discovery, we'll find that costs drop very very rapidly.
Nuclear proponents bring this up, but it's not an argument that saves nuclear. Nuclear is quite horrible at providing backup power, since it has large fixed costs.
In a cost optimized no-CO2 system, you'll see renewables providing immediate power, short term storage (batteries, pumped hydro) carrying over shorter outages, and some sort of peaking capacity for longer lulls in sun/wind. Overcapacity of the renewables + longer distance transmission will help, as will end-user storage of heat/cold. The peaking capacity will be used only a small fraction of the time, and will be powered by hydrogen (either from electrolysis from excess renewable output, or from NG steadily reformed to H2 and the H2 stored for use during the peaks, and the CO2 from the reformers sequestered). Simple cycle plants are ~40% efficient and cost < $400/kW.
Nuclear can be cheap. We have decided to make it expensive.
We throw away 95% of the fuel. This is because Carter gave an order to not reprocess old fuel rods. Well, we would throw away 95%, but actually we just keep it sitting around for political reasons. Most of our fissionable material is sitting in containment ponds.
The NRC refuses to give guidance. They will only approve a reactor or disapprove it, given a finalized design. You have to do all the design work up front, completely in the dark, and then you get a thumbs-up or a thumbs-down.
Every stupid insignificant part involves absurd paperwork, right down to changing the lightbulbs.
Nuclear fuel is very cheap per kWh generated. It's so cheap that people don't bother with breeder reactors, because the potential savings in fuel costs are trivial.
It's not why nuclear is expensive. It's the construction costs.
And operation costs. Construction and operation costs are both hampered by regulatory burden that is not currently commensurate with the statistical risk.
It understates the statistical risk! Nuclear power plants have international treatise to severely curtail their liability in the event of an accident because nuclear events are extraordinarily costly.
Fukushima thus far has yielded some $700B USD of costs, and it has no end in site. Chernobyl has been estimated at having cost $235B USD.
No insurance company would touch this sort of liability, so governments put a hard cap on the potential liability. Here in Ontario, nuclear plants were only responsible for $75M of damage for the longest time, though over the next few years it will increase to $1B. The actual damage it could reasonably cost -- what any other industry would have to insure for -- would be more in the $1000B ($1T) range.
Yeah, I actually think the advanced nuclear companies should say they don't need things like Price-Anderson to cap liabilities. They're really that safe, and the designers are that confident. Doing so would demonstrate that level of confidence.
The fair comparison, though, is: what's the cost of global warming, and who will insure against it once fossil fuel emitters are held liable?
Also, if we looked at the latest research on low-dose radiation effects and really let that sink in, we'd spend far less on the cleanup of near background dose stuff after the few accidents that do occur.
> It's a trope that Nuclear is failing because of fearmongering. Nuclear is uneconomical, especially with renewable energy dropping in cost consistently.
You are ignoring that the fearmongering has over a long time influenced laws and regulation to make it uneconomical. To pretend there is no correlation is simply disingenuous.
It was a hope of many senators that wanted to get the 'green' vote to systematically defund and over-regulate nuclear. Nuclear innovation was significantly hindered by political interest on ever level, federal to local and I can go into lots of examples.
It is actually well known and confirmed that anti-nuclear organization such as green peace had a deliberate political strategy to focus on one thing only, more regulation for nuclear TO make it more expensive. The 'nuclear is unsafe' hammer has turned out to be very effective because most people and even most politicians don't know the facts. The coal and oil interest of course have a nice alliance with the greenpeace types and together nuclear was systematically hindered.
Just look at the current regulatory agency and the almost complete standstill in improvements since they took over.
If you look the production of nuclear reactors in the US you will see that they were on pace to replace coal power when building them was not much more expensive then a coal plant. Since then we had almost zero innovation and cost have exploded.
If you just look at the resources required for nuclear, there is no reason it should be so expensive. The problem is that we are using 60 year old designs because innovation has been made totally impossible thanks to the regulatory framework.
What damage does it actually make to the environment when creating solar panels? I mean, what materials are gathered, distributed and collected from where? What is the break even point just on cost, not even counting environmental impact.
All this renewable stuff and the saving are total theory. There is no industrial country that is even close to being fully renewable. France would do much better to replace their nuclear reactors with more modern once over a long time.
These reactors work for almost 100 years while you have to replace solar panels and wind multiple times.
Not to mention intermittency is not even close to being solved.
Every actual attempted of using renewable has skyrocketed costs however much people want to ignore that.
Nothing ever happens for the first time, right?
I’ll bet you lunch the US replaces every GW of nuclear generation with solar, wind, and utility scale energy storage in 10 years (sooner than any nuclear generator would come online).
Disclaimer: I am an armchair energy policy enthusiast, and aggregate generator permitting, construction, turn up, operation, and decommissioning data for visualization and production siting.
Edit: Lunch bet email in my profile.
Sure, maybe that happens. Only an irrational culture would squander an obviously great energy source.
But you cannot dispute the massive resources, and square footage it requires to accomplish that future of massive wind farms, every building with solar panels installed, and huge battery warehouses littered throughout the nation... especially when compared to a handful of modern Nuclear Reactor Plants.
More people die installing Solar Roof Panels than from all the Nuclear energy production combined 
I don’t dispute the land constraints, it’s the economics you can’t argue with. Solar and wind at utility scale are below 2 cents/kWh and falling. Nuclear cannot compete with that in any configuration.
You can make roof installs safer (process, hardware), utility installs on the ground are already safe. No one has any place to store nuclear waste, no one will insure it, and no one wants to tie capital up for decades in nuclear generators.
Nuclear, like coal, is a wonderful fuel if you can foist all of the externalities on someone else.
The Solar and Wind kWh production doesn't take into account having to store it, which costs additional money. Nuclear didn't become expensive all on it's own... it became expensive after 60+ years of not building new Nuclear plants in the United States and keeping only a few outdated first-generation plants...
Modern Nuclear plants are very safe, and very cost effective... and can ramp up or down energy production on demand. Plus, they can be built wherever people want... not just where sunlight or wind patterns are suitable.
Solar Roof Panel installation is dangerous because people fall off the roof...yet, that alone has led to more deaths than Nuclear energy production.
The U.S. Navy has gone 60 years without a nuclear accident (the entire history since inception of the "Nuclear Navy")... and that's in vehicles (both surface and submarine vessels) designed to be shot, blown up, and sunk in combat.
Nuclear is safe, and cost effective. Particularly when considering modern approaches to reactors and spent fuel recycling and storage practices. We, as a nation, are just irrationally afraid of something most people simply don't understand.
> The U.S. Navy has gone 60 years without a nuclear accident (the entire history since inception of the "Nuclear Navy")... and that's in vehicles (both surface and submarine vessels) designed to be shot, blown up, and sunk in combat.
I think this is especially impressive considering the losses of the USS Thresher  and USS Scorpion . Despite their loss, there was still no significant containment breach.
For every MW capacity of wind the states around me put in a MW of nat-gas. The reason obviously being that the wind doesn't blow all the time. As for solar, it only really produces 4 hours a day and a cloudy day can cut production in half or more.
The only serious solution to our energy needs is nuclear. Everything else requires magical thinking.
This just seems like common sense though? There isn't a conflict here that I can see. Use renewables to eliminate some carbon, add natural gas plants (which are cheap and quick to build by comparison) for leveling. Dump coal. Then build nuclear which take a decade or more to replace natural gas plants.
And those natural gas plants produce less emissions than coal.
But it's not squandered, just the opposite. Using nuclear (or any other fossil fuel) when you can use a renewable source seems to me like eating the emergency rations on a regular weekend dinner. It only sounds sensible if one doesn't expect us to be around much longer.
Uranium isn't a fossil fuel, and you're going to run out of land to build solar and wind power collectors on long before you run out of uranium.
Fair enough, I meant "non-renewable". I don't think that comparison makes much sense; available land limits the power, not the energy.
How do you store the energy for later? Lithium batteries? What makes lithium more renewable than uranium?
Even so, on the long run, power and not energy is what matters. By definition, you need a net power surplus to build up energy stores, because you need to generate energy faster than you are consuming it, and power is merely energy over time.
> What makes lithium more renewable than uranium?
Lithium doesn't get depleted.
> Even so, on the long run, power and not energy is what matters. By definition, you need a net power surplus to build up energy stores, because you need to generate energy faster than you are consuming it, and power is merely energy over time.
How does this contradict my argument?
> How does this contradict my argument?
You said that available land limits the power, but not the energy, available via renewables. If power is what you actually need rather than energy, that point is irrelevant, isn't it?
Lithium can be extracted from the ocean cost effectively if we had to. It’s effectively limitless.
The same is true of Uranium, we will never run out.
Renewables are better than nuclear, but nuclear is much better than combustion power. We desperately need to drop coal, and it's gonna take a long, long time to reach 100% renewable.
except nuclear doesn’t produce pollution on a scale close to fossil fuels. 90 reactors are producing %20 of our electricity right now without emitting air pollution (although I’m not sure about the energy used to mine/transport uranium)
This is definitely not my area of expertise, but I found John Platt's work on modeling the marginal cost of energy a pretty compelling counter-argument https://ai.google/research/pubs/pub46289
The gist is that after ~30-40% penetration, the cost of renewables, even with storage, is no longer cheaper than natural gas.
And while storage bends the curve, getting from 80% renewables to 100% without something dispatchable is very expensive.
I don't think this is necessarily important for nuclear, since we could have Gas+CCS, but I have lower hopes for pure renewables+storage.
It's conceivable that renewables + fossil w. CCS will be the cheaper solution, at least until the fossil fuels run out. One could, for example, reform NG to hydrogen and CO2, then sequester the CO2 and store the H2 for use in peaking turbines. This would fit nicely with renewables. It would leave little room for nuclear.
We can hope. It would be better if we kept the nuclear online and used those GWs to replace coal plants instead, though.
I will take that bet.
I'd take that bet too
There is plenty of fearmongering, but the thing preventing new nuclear construction is more economics than anything else.
Nuclear didn't just become expensive. The fearmongering made it expensive.
I think it's more that nuclear plants are exceptionally large and complex and that makes it difficult to access economies of scale, and each new safety measure introduced after an accident involves additional complexity layered on top, which worsens the problem. There are so many countries with so many different cultures of regulation which have had difficulties with nuclear recently, in particular with the latest generation designs.
I think you could make the situation better by having a dramatic programme to scale up nuclear, because then you can get economies of scale. That worked quite well for the French, but it means a large upfront investment, essentially paying for 50 years of energy in advance, with significant risk of cost over-runs.
That requirement for front-loaded investment means the cost depends very strongly on the interest rate of money borrowed, and a low interest rate on a large, complex project requires government backing. So the fundamental reason is that governments do not have the appetite for that sort of intervention or that level of risk, like they did during the 60's-70's.
China followed the big spin up plan, aren't in any sort of over regulation problem, and could roll over any anti-nuclear protest, and yet found schedule and cost overruns still occured.
> The country has the capacity to build 10 to 12 nuclear reactors a year. But though reactors begun several years ago are still coming online, the industry has not broken ground on a new plant in China since late 2016, according to a recent World Nuclear Industry Status Report.
> Officially China still sees nuclear power as a must-have. But unofficially, the technology is on a death watch. Experts, including some with links to the government, see China’s nuclear sector succumbing to the same problems affecting the West: the technology is too expensive, and the public doesn’t want it.
Sadly 3MI and Chernobyl turned environmentalists against it. In fairness, one can’t blame them, but as a technology matured and is better understood and built, they should actively support something they previously were against arguably for valid safety concerns.
Fukushima was the nail in the coffin. A lot of people don't remember Three Mile Island, and Chernobyl had been spun (not unreasonably) as Soviet incompetence. People in general were cautiously tolerant of nuclear until Fukushima. It's a damn shame.
Yes but the tech was dead before Fukushima the first. Da ichi was a 40-50 year old tech, and for the tech it did okay given the circumstances.
So even before Fukushima, there’d be delay after delay for more studies and impact and safety concerns for new projects and old ones getting shut down mostly due to thd ghosts of 3MI and Chernobyl.
Of course it doesn’t help to engender confidence in the tech as this legacy is the baggage any new tech faces in any consideration.
Whats kind of funny is that Chernobyl is the newest reactor of the 3 that have failed. Both Three Mile Island and Fukushima are older reactors.
Before fukushima, I estimated any natural disaster big enough to destroy a nuclear plant would kill so many people itself, that the nuclear accident would be a mere side note.
Well Tōhoku tsunami and earthquake killed 15,000+ people and yet everyone only talks about the nuclear plant that was hit with it.
At some point you just have to accept that human mind has an irrational fear on rare but dramatic events
Fukushima Daiichi..which killed zero people from radiation. I think we have to reflect on whether or not we overreacted from that accident. In a sense it shows that even in crazy conditions, most of the core remains in the plant, and the radiation released isn't much of a health threat. Meanwhile coal kills a 200,000 per year while operating normally! The difference is astounding, yet nuclear is the most regulated industry on earth.
Fukushima did massive contamination of inhabitable land, which is in short supply in Japan already. But the only reason it wasn't much worse is the wind pattern blowing towards the sea.
> Meanwhile coal kills a 200,000 per year while operating normally!
Coal is definitely the worst conventional energy generation tech. No wonder nuclear advocates love to focus on it as if it's the only alternative. That said, do you know anyone who died from coal?
>That said, do you know anyone who died from coal?
Personally no. But in production of coal you have many miners’ lives cut short as a direct consequence of mining activities. Now, that’s short of the annual number listed there but this is a known direct consequence.
Respiratory disease kills everyday people from coal emissions left and right by similar mechanisms to smoking. The numbers are huge for asthma and COPD, and large fractions of those are attributed to fossil fuel air pollution. In less developed energy markets, indoor cooking is as bad or worse. In the USA, the Clean Air Act saves lives like crazy but we still are killed by fossil emissions.
> Fukushima did massive contamination of inhabitable land
Have you seen the dose rates in the area recently and compared them to the higher end of natural background in inhabited areas on Earth? If not I recommend you do. It's very reasonable to evacuate an area during a massive nuclear accident. When the dose rate goes down, it's very reasonable to go back. Here's a handy reference: . The main point is that global warming gets rid of even more inhabitable land by pushing people out of cities en masse.
> No wonder nuclear advocates love to focus on it as if it's the only alternative.
Nuclear is safer than almost every other energy source. More people fall of their roofs installing solar panels per TWh than people die from nuclear accidents. Hydro has killed people by the 100,000 as well. Shoot, even wind kills people with ice-throw .
> That said, do you know anyone who died from coal?
A few hundred thousand per year, but no I don't actually know any of those people. Do you know anyone who has died from nuclear power, which kills 6 orders of magnitude fewer people?
The main point is that global warming is the serious threat and we should throw all serious low-carbon energy sources at it. Nuclear is the only large-scale operational low-carbon source that can run through daily and seasonal weather shifts, so it should play a large role. Wind and solar are needed as well, at about 20x their current deployment.
> More people fall of their roofs installing solar panels per TWh than people die from nuclear accidents.
Belarus has not commissioned its first nuclear plant yet, but already two construction workers died on its construction. That's already +INF amount of deaths per TW generated nationally.
> Do you know anyone who has died from nuclear power, which kills 6 orders of magnitude fewer people?
I actually do, met a dying Chernobyl liquidator in early 1990s.
I wonder how the economcics between nuclear, natural gas, and coal would pan out if the negative externalities (including both emmisions during consumption of the fuel and those created during mining/capturing of the fuel) were accounted for into the cost of the produced electricity.
The president of Exelon has said new nuclear in the US would require a CO2 tax of $300-400/tonne in order to compete with natural gas. At that tax rate, it would be cheaper to completely sequester the CO2 from a NG plant.
So, no, the externalities cannot save nuclear in the US.
>Aspiration alone is no different than failure.
By that measure solar and wind are catastrophic failures given that they still depend on non-existent storage technologies to hit any kind of baseload replacement goals.
Aspiration is also the first step to success.
Also pretty much anything is better than coal and fossil fuels. I can't hear the phrase 'clean coal' bandied about without wanting to bang my head against the nearest wall.
Russian-built reactors are already generating electricity.
Anyone who, at the same time, claims that "we're all gonna die" if something is not done in the next decade, and doesn't want to consider nuclear is a hypocrite, and not a very bright person. If you believe in the first premise (for the record, I do not, although I do believe in man-made climate change), then you have to concede that nuclear is the only way out that's anywhere near viable without pretending that we can spend tens of trillions of dollars on infrastructure that needs to be replaced every 20 years.
I count 45 planned reactors and 12 reactors currently under construction in China at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_reactors#China
Somehow the two under construction in the US (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Pla...) are estimated to cost $25B and are complicated by Westinghouse having declared bankruptcy. Others (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Gener...) have been cancelled.
The same AP1000 reactor model was installed at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanmen_Nuclear_Power_Station at a cost of just $6b, although they were also 4 years late in becoming operational. But it does seem like other countries are capable of getting these large projects done while they whither and drag out in the US.
Inability to buid high-speed rail in US corroborates with this conclusion. It is not economically ineffective，it is US infrastructure projects huge inefficiency (sadly). If we check other industries, I think we would able to find more failed big projects.
Big mistake. The US nuclear industry is a wreck because of the lack of standardization and economies of scale, unlike, say, France.
India should also be investing in thorium reactors given its indigenous reserves and the inherent safety advantages.
Another issue is cooling: water supplies in Andhra Pradesh are highly erratic, and this will only get worse with global warming.
The water lost to cooling ends up as steam and then precipitation. So it doesn't exactly delete water, it just disperses it. Some of it will fall straight back into the same river systems. A lot of it would probably be absorbed into the local water table—which is valuable if the table is already being tapped.
Does anyone know if there's any modelling to show how widely such activity disperses water? How much of the water is expected to land somewhere functionally useless (e.g. into oceans)?
Or, if they built a desalination plant next to each nuclear plant, would they be able to compensate for the water loss efficiently?
The trouble with nuclear in regions where water can be scarce is that you can't cool your plant sufficiently and have to turn it off. You can take only a small fraction of a river's flow for cooling without kill all fish in the river. If the river is low on water, your plant can't be cooled.
About Thorium- Subramanyam Swamy agrees- I wonder why there isn't more research on this, despite BJP being in the center and Modi seemingly listening to him.
The president of United States of America is on record saying Global warming is a hoax (asterisk), a fact he has repeated multiple times in his online communications on the micro-blogging website twitter.com , thereby throwing his full weight behind the claims.
(asterisk) A chinese hoax but the chinese part was before the said person became the president. I am not sure if he has skipped the Chinese part in his post inauguration communication for matters of international relationships or because he has changed his opinion on the origins of the hoax.
Greenpeace cofounder says that while the president is wrong and that earth is indeed getting hotter- people-made climate change is indeed a hoax and that people have no contribution to global warming. (or it's d/dx, or d2,dx2)
I'm not sure whom to listen to but either way, I would say that since peoplekind is not responsible, then it's God's will and in that case we shouldn't worry about it.
This is great new not just from environment perspective. This is a move that significantly reduces dirty politicians influence in India.
Guess who is awarded most of new Power Generation plants in India since private sector started building power plants? It almost entirely politicians and their family members.
Example (Owned by Member of Parliament Galla Jayadev's Family) :
Don’t get me started about corruption in India: PM Modi is a thug and a murderer. The BJP use Hinduism to just further their nationalistic, xenophobic, autocratic nature. And the RSS (the enforcement arm of the BJP) can is the reincarnation of the gestapo. I’be first hand experience of what being on the wrong side of the RSS means.
 you think even the Supreme Court of India is impartial enough to find the then PM of Gujarat responsible when non-Hindus die at the hands of a Hindu mob? Hah didn’t think so.
This crosses into political flamewar. Please do not use HN for that or call names in comments here, regardless of how right you are or feel.
I’m sorry. I got carried away. I spent two days in an Indian jail while doing NGO social work in rural areas during the election when Modi took power. I later found out his goons the RSS had targeted me. As the son of a first generation Indian American I felt betrayed. I wasn’t doing anything wrong just being an American in India in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Also I never made any blanket statements about the Indian people — who I love. It’s the government of India that I have fault with especially the current administration.
Its interesting, I wonder that you were important enough that the prime minister of India personally did stuff to make you commit a crime that sent you to jail for two whole days.
Anyway, I'll flag because you don't seem to be backing off your flamewar fanning rhetoric.
Pouring fuel on flamewars like this will get you banned here. Please do not do this on HN again.
Not him personally but his goons. But this whole thing was a mistake and HN is not the platform for such things. Please delete the parent thread if possible.
Meanwhile in the US SCE&G abandoned their two under construction AP1000s after Westinghouse went bankrupt and the remaining two that Southern is building at Vogtle are on life support. The only AP1000s actually operating are in China.
Finally something that helps us avoid the beginning climate catastrophe. Nuclear power is of the very few effective means of working towards that goal.
> The two countries have been discussing the supply of US nuclear reactors to India, the world's third-biggest buyer of oil, for more than a decade.
I doubt that any nuclear capacity will significantly affect India's oil consumption. Nuclear typically displaces coal or gas.
India has one nuclear reactor's worth of diesel power plants (about 1000 MW). And 90 times more (90 GW worth) of all kinds of smaller diesel generators used as backups during power outages.
If the new nuclear electricity decreases the outages in the grid, I am sure it will almost 1:1 turn to savings in burned diesel.
It could replace it faster and cheaper by financing distributed solar or wind and batteries.
Way ahead of you : https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/s...
Sun and wind must be coupled with nat-gas, or at least that's how it works in the US. Either that or prepare for brown/blackouts.
LCOE estimates for at least the short duration gaps has solar+ batteries beating nat-gas peakers. This is pretty recent, in actual construction bids for IIRC < 4hr capability. Expect more encroachment onto basically mature nat-gas tech space as batteries and solar continue to get cheaper.
What about solar pv module and battery module waste?
What about the environmental impact of mining and extracting the rare and not so rare elements that go into making solar pv modules and battery modules?
What about the water use in the production of these modules?
What about the greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial scale processes involved in producing these modules?
What about the impact on wildlife and the environment through land clearance, habitat destruction, species dislocation, threats to bird species, …
From the way people go on about solar pv and battery tech you'd swear they had zero externalities.
> It could replace it faster and cheaper by financing distributed solar or wind and batteries.
Faster, probably. Cheaper, probably. But at what cost to animal and human lives, and at what cost to the environment? Coal plants can be built fast and cheap too. That's why we've so many of them.
You recycle them because they're waste that doesn't fall into super specialized radioactive processing categories:
Energy dept on energy lifecycle of PV pays back in < 3 years of their typical 20-30 year lifespan. (and that's a span to 80% sustained production - the panels can go longer...)
I could keep answering all those questions point by point, but they're googleable and I feel there is a distinct lack of curiosity on those points...
From the link you just provided:
Millions upon millions of tonnes of e-waste just in panels, no mention about batteries.
And the industrial processes involved?
(A) Silicon based PV panels
(1) Disassembly of aluminium and glass parts
(2) Thermal processing at 500C!
(3) Physically separating cell modules
(4) Etching away silicon wafers (using acid!)
(5) Melting broken wafers (at what temp?)
And what % rates does that give you? 100% metal reuse, 95% glass reuse, 85% silicon reuse, 80% modules reused: all in all sounds pretty energy intensive and doesn't even result in 100% recycling
(B) Thin-film based PV panels
(1) Shredding the PV panels into 4-5mm pieces to remove lamination
(2) Separating solid and liquid with a rotating screw
(3) Removing film using acid and peroxide!
(4) Removing interlayers materials with vibration
(5) Rinsing the glass (using up how much water?)
(6) Separating and processing metals
And what % rates does that give you? 95% semiconductor material reuse, 90% glass reused: all in all sounds pretty energy intensive and doesn't even result in 100% recycling
And of course you have to build the reprocessing and recycling plants which is energy intensive and generates greenhouse gas emissions because construction is a major source of greenhouse gas emission.
And again, that's saying nothing about battery waste.
But yeah, solar pv panels and battery modules: great solution …
To be fair, you'll have to compare this to the treatment of the fuel waste and the decommissioned plant. Especially the former problem seems to be largely unsolved.
Treatment of fuel waste is not really a difficult problem.
This is where swiss fuel waste is stored :
An area less than half a (european) football stadium to contain 45 years of fuel waste for 4 nuclear plants. As of April 2018, there are 449 operable power reactors in the world.
That means you need an area as large as 56 football stadiums to contain all the fuel waste in the world. Not exactly an impressive area. A solar park this size would output energy equivalent to less than a 10th of one modern nuclear plant.
*EDIT: changed a 1000th to a 10th. It greatly exaggerates the solar capacity, but it doesn't change the point anyway.
Here is an article about how Russia dealt with India's civil nuclear liability law.
Perhaps, something similar was agreed for American reactors.
In the meantime Solar Power is one of the fastest growing industries in India. Government is targeting 100GW by 2022:
India's history with nuclear power plants hasn't exactly been great. Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant faced tons of protests:
Nuclear power gets a bad rap. Instead of abandoning the technology we should be focusing on how to safely contain a meltdown. I mean if we use boron control rods to absorb the neutrons, then why not encase the whole thing in a boron tomb that vacuum seals when radiation is detected?
modern reactors have core catching devices that are supposed to catch a meltdown and prevent it from going into the ground https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Core_catcher
of course these have never been tried in an accident because both Chernobyl and Fukushima are very old reactors. On the other hand before Fukushima I used to see people say that the problem with Chernobyl is there was no containment vessel as there is in western reactors, then in Fukushima the containment vessel did melt through. So who knows how well the core catcher would work in practice.
The cores at Fukushima didn't "go into the ground" either. That doesn't prevent water in the core carrying radioactive material all over the place, once things are compromised.
True, but radioactive water is much easier to deal with than radioactive air because the hydrogen will capture the neutrons converting to Deuterium which is relatively safe and isotopes of oxygen are relatively shortlived. So as long as you can filter the heavy metals, it's in theory, less of a mess.
I'm starting to get the feeling that all terrestrial energy generation should ultimately come from sunlight, and our nuclear reactors should be out in space, and on other celestial bodies, especially those further away from the sun.
But in order to do that, we need to further develop nuclear reactor technology by building utility-scale nuclear energy plants here on Earth--not because we need our energy to be nuclear, but because we need our nuclear energy to be reliable and efficient.
The cynical part of me is thinking that the US can apparently build nuclear plants anywhere on Earth except in the US.
Why? There is literally no reason to have nuclear reactors in space.
Building a modern reactor that is not based on 60 year old technology would make more sense, but regulation have made that impossible and the government itself has 0 interest in doing so.
Radiothermal generators already power satellites and space probes.
Nuclear fuel has the highest energy density of any fuel currently available to us.
Wind and water power is unavailable when there is no atmosphere or weather cycle. Solar power requires more surface area as you get further from the sun. Solar panels and storage batteries have mass, too.
Combustion fuels have mass, and the rocket equation hates superfluous mass in objects launched to orbit.
A good engine for low-gravity propulsion would be a nuclear reactor that heats propellant to a very high temperature and then releases it at high velocity. That's not the sort of engine that could get you to orbit, but it does provide a lot of delta-V once you are up there. Propellant can be found outside of gravity wells, and a refuel mission carrying nuclear fuel is cheap to launch on a dollar per joule basis.
Nuclear waste does not endanger the environment if there is no environment to endanger. No one is likely to stumble across it accidentally. Criticality accidents would only kill the crew, if there even is a crew.
Habitats that are buried deeply to protect against radiation and to contain a bio-friendly environment may not be able to rely on solar alone. They would likely need a large mass of batteries to make it through storms and nights, and an RTG or a full-blown reactor might provide more reliable power for less mass.
Ah. Sure for propulsion I love nuclear reactor and NTR. But not to get it back to earth. haha.
Less restrictive regulations; NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) policies :)
India undoubtedly become power hungry, when I was visiting couple of years back power cut has become a norm which i don't remember when I grew up. There are so many wind mill installation around my hometown but at the same time there is so much opposition for nuclear power. https://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/0f/a1/06/fa/...
Could we get 6 new reactors in the US?
I'm actually serious... I don't get why we still have coal power plants at all. I know there are various risks involved, and disposal is another, but a lot of lessons have been learned and there's a lot of room here for this. It's just incredible that a couple of movies could set back nuclear power in the US for as many decades as has happened.
I wish the US would build six new (clean, safe) nuclear plants in the US.
There's two under construction now in Georgia and one came online in late 2016 in Tennessee. But these are all additions to existing facilities.
The cost of new nuclear power is far beyond most traditional and even renewable power generation, so we're not likely to see many more any time soon.
Let's hope they got their waste management figured out
Can somebody explain to me what happens with all the nuclear waste? How is nuclear power anything else but an environmental catastrophe waiting to happen? We pile the waste on and on, how do we deal with that?
When we burn fossil fuels a huge volume of hazardous waste just goes into the environment, and we know what it does then. With nuclear there is also a huge volume of hazardous waste, but at least it remains spatially consolidated and in our control. The consensus best solution is deep burial. Sure we might run out of space and create nuclear "landmines" over the very long term, but it's a preferable tradeoff to the much more imminent threats of the global warming.
How would you describe:
>and we know what it does then.
What is it that it does then?
Greenhouse effect, ozone depletion, poisoning the hydrosphere and biosphere, etc; not going to dignify the question with further details.
I don't understand why one wouldn't believe in the environmental dangers of conventional energy sources but be hyper concerned about the "environmental catastrophe waiting to happen" from nuclear energy sources.
France burns its waste in nuclear plants. The US created a geologically stable dump that was shut down for political reasons. The EPA had certified it as safe for 10,000 years.
France does not burn its waste in nuclear plants. Use of MOX fuel in thermal reactors doesn't count, as it only uses a fraction of the produced transuranics, and cannot then be recycled into more MOX fuel. And of course it doesn't do a damned thing to fission products.
You hear all the time about how there's thousands of tons of high level radioactive waste and that sounds scary and huge but really when you're talking about the scale of an entire country that's absolutely peanuts. I do think the way we handle nuclear waste in America needs to be overhauled but even just deep burial in long term casks would be sufficient. The only chance of someone accidentally digging one up is contingent on such a massive loss of knowledge and continuity of society that it would have to be an apocalyptic event.
But if you're interested in other approaches that could be taken nuclear waste is primarily U-238 and Plutonium. Rather than bury it all the waste can be reprocessed to extract usable fuel and depleted Uranium from the waste which reduces the amount of waste to deal with by about 90%. Another thing commonly repeated is that nuclear waste has a half life of tens of thousands of years. This is wrong, isotopes have half lives, nuclear waste does not. Nuclear waste is a toxic soup of different isotopes, some short lived, others long lived. As the isotopes spontaneously fission the concentrations in the waste change. 10kg of nuclear waste on day 1 is immensely more radioactive than 10kg of nuclear waste on day 1,000,000. Fresh nuclear waste has substantially higher amounts of short lived isotopes which is why when spent fuel is removed from a reactor it has to be stored in a cooling pond for a long time before it can be stored in a cask. Radioactivity has an inverse relationship with the half live, short lived isotopes are extremely radioactive and extremely long lived isotopes are barely radioactive.
If you wanted to go further than just reducing the amount of waste you can actually burn up waste so to speak. If you bombard it with tons of neutrons (like from a fusion reactor hopefully in the long term) you either split the fissile isotopes or breed them into a different isotope.
Just by processing our waste we could split the waste into stuff that has a short half life that you would just let decay naturally, stuff that has a long half life that can be buried without any real concerns about someone building a dirty bomb with it, and stuff in between that could potentially be burned up in a reactor or just buried in more secure facilities like what Yucca mountain was supposed to provide.
- Bury it underground in geological repositories. These have been extensively studied and are, to the best of our knowledge, more than safe enough.
- We can reprocess it and burn it in breeder reactors. The remaining waste will decay to background levels in about 300 years. Oh, and we can shutdown the uranium mining industry for, oh, the next 1000 years while we burn up the uranium we have already dug up.
Also keep in mind that while the waste is dangerous, it's absolutely minuscule in volume. All worldwide spent (civilian) nuclear fuel could fit on a football field, stacked a few meters high.
Nuclear waste in reality is a tiny problem. The amount of waste is insignificantly small. Its not even waste as its valuable material for the future and should be considered as such.
The amount of fear spread about nuclear waste is so far out of proportion with the reality of the situation that its hard to even explain how crazy many of the believes about nuclear waste are.
Compared to all other forms of energy, including solar and wind, nuclear produces by far the least amount of waste to the envoirment. In fact, nothing escapes into the environment, everything is captured and can be handled appropriately.
> Compared to all other forms of energy, including solar and wind, nuclear produces by far the least amount of waste to the envoirment. In fact, nothing escapes into the environment, everything is captured and can be handled appropriately.
Sorry if I'm missing something, but which waste escapes to the environment for solar or wind during operation? I can only think of reflected light and heat for solar, and turbulence for wind.
Unless you're thinking also of the waste produced during bulding and dismantling, but then you'd have to compare with bulding and dismantling the whole nuclear plant, not just its fuel.
Solar panels are not systematically recycled. Solar panel production produces quite a bit of waste and much of it is not handle appropriately in factories in China.
For wind its less so, you just have gigantic towers everywhere that will eventually be ruins. And also you have to build a lot of gigantic wind turbines to match the output of a single nuclear planet.
I am comparing end to end. A nuclear plant is one big building in one place and most of that is just common building materials, minimal amount of mining for the uranium. And if we eventually actually build new modern nuclear plants it would reduce the size of the plant by quite a bit as well. Nuclear has more upside in terms of efficiency (currently only 2% efficient) and minimizing resource usage.
Pretty much every end to end analysis agrees that nuclear has the least amount of resource and land usage, and it has the least amount of uncontrolled waste.
nuclear is much cleaner then anything else... the waste is only less radioactive then the fuel. What is your better alternative that doesn't create any waste?
The waste is many orders of magnitude more radioactive than the fuel. The fuel itself is fissile, meaning it can split when hit with a neutron. Radioactivity is a measure of how often an isotope will spontaneously split on its own. The fresh fuel gives off very little radiation and it can be handled with nothing more than a pair of latex gloves, and the gloves are only necessary to keep the handler's greasy grubby mitts off of the expensive and highly clean and pure fuel bundle. The spent fuel is so radioactive that it has to be stored underwater for at least 3 years and commonly up to 10 because the radiation is enough to heat up the fuel to unsafe temperatures before that time.
Nuclear is much cleaner than fossil fuels though, you're right about that, natural gas has some radon mixed in that just gets vented to the atmosphere and coal ash that makes it past whatever filtering system the power plant uses releases far more radiation than nuclear plants could during normal operation.
What happens to the liability act?
I wish all civilian nuclear power plants operate under UN https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Build%E2%80%93operate%E2%80%...
I guess that would be the peak of globalization, when you wean off energy control from individual countries.
I wonder what types of reactors they'll be building. I've recently heard of Thorium reactors (and I don't understand enough about them) but I'd love to see them start spinning up around the world to see if they actually are as good as they seem.
While Afganistan is called the graveyard of empires, India is where emperors face their first miserable defeat.
There is a book titled "Confessions of an economic Hitman". The book is written by an ex-CIA agent to was an economist and would write a lot of fake reports claiming developing nations can grow much faster only if they invest heavily in infrastructure. Then US would generously offer loans in return of assurance that the contracts will be awarded only to American companies. Fe decades down the line those countries would be left holding the can and debt. This model failed miserably for USA in India because India' growth story after 1990s turned out of be true, India's hunger for infra actually grew. Enron who had a weird misadventure in India eventually had to file for bankruptcy.
While I am happy that India is tripling the nuclear energy capability I am unhappy that American companies are involved. It might end up badly for Indian but more than likely to Americans.
Your premise here seems to be "countries paying back their loans is bad for the companies that built the infrastructure", and I think I'm really going to need some more explanation for that one.
"When some of those countries were unable to service their debt we often said, "Ok, you may not pay now, but your country will vote to support the US at the next vote in the UN. Or you will allow the US to build a military base on your territory." Or something else of the kind."
That seems like it would be bad for the US not bad for the companies in question, who got paid either way.
The gist I got from the article is that those companies would also get benefits, like cheaper access to resources or monopolies in their areas of operation.
I wish more people understood that this is how international debts are ACTUALLY paid.
Companies are paid anyway: if the country cannot make payments, it will have to agree to an IMF loan that is used to pay the American companies first, and then left holding the debt along with draconian austerity measures. So for these companies the more outlandish the promises, the better! The payment is "guaranteed" by the IMF deals. During a period from the 60s on this has been the biggest cash cow for American companies operating on developing countries.
Right, but that seems to suggest that it's getting countries to agree to take huge loans that's good for the companies, which is kind of independent of their eventual ability to pay the loans back. GGP was saying that countries paying back the loans was bad for the companies in question, when their relationship will have been over for years at that point.
Yes, in a normal world it is not bad for these companies if the country can pay their loans back. However, if you follow the logic, if a country is paying back the loans on time it just means that the first loan was not big enough! The advantage for a company to sell more than the buyer can pay is that for the foreseeable future (a decade more or less) it will make A LOT of money. This is all that CEOs really want. And under the logic of IMF, these loans will be paid in one way or another, so the company will not suffer any problem by selling more than the country really can pay.
I am going to recommend this book -- Confessions of an Economic Hitman (John Perkins). I think there might be a new version since the time that I read.
I don't understand your point, how did America lose when India grew quickly after investing in infrastructure with the help of American capital? Furthermore, I'm unaware of any real adversarial relationship between the US/India. Is it portrayed in India as being so?
American politicians made a bet on India actually failing to grow. They thought that once the country is deeper debt they can bully India around for support in UN, military bases and so on. American government most certainly lost that bet.
Do not mistake government with people. American citizens are not same as government nor American government solely works in American citizen's interest. This is a powerplay in corridors you don't even know to exist. Let me give you an real world example.
Indian government might be oppressive and incompetent at governance but they are supremely good at understanding other governments. A certain Indian company wanted to import a highly sophisticated technology from European country. The laws prevented the export without the European nation approving the sale. The technology itself was very benign. It was not defense tech or anything dangerous. But those restrictions on sale were put in place at the request of American government officials few years ago.
How did the Indian company managed to get it eventually ? Indian government through a secret untraceable channel donated $5M to a charity run by the wife of an ex-American official. That official then made phone call directly to the head of European state who signed the papers in 24 hours and the sale went through. Also all this probably perfectly legal and happens all the time. I recommend you read "Clinton Cash" to know more about one such family.
India is already firmly in the Western sphere of influence, and I still don't see how America "lost" any bet. A strong India is absolutely in our favor given it's a democracy with fundamental rights and rule of law.
The example you cite is not surprising to me in the least. It's realpolitik, and every regional power does this and always has. That book was self important wish-fulfillment on the part of the author, IMHO.
Hope they don't built it in Tamil Nadu. We already have two.
This is exciting I wonder if Westinghouse will ever use some of the technology that Transatomic developed.
Hopefully nuclear power can help India grow more greenly and catch up economically with China.
India is the key ally to all developed countries in the western world, be it the Rafael Deal for fighter aircrafts to other countries like Israel agreeing to setup defence manufacturing in India all are keen to be engaged with India. US especially after Trump became president has been very much Pro India as opposed to Obama who was definitely anti-india and Pro Pakistan, If the US has to tame china it needs India , these geo political equations I believe favours India and that is why you see all these things happening now
This is just sad. We already have all the green technology we need and yet we destroy our planet :(